推荐回答（1个）
可10年后的今天，这场被近半数美国人认为不成功的战争，却仍在争议中艰难地进行着，且一时半会还看不到尽头。这场一度被认为可速决的战争，为何演变为美国历史上最长的一次战争呢？
想当年，用了不到3个月的时间，美国及其盟军就将塔利班武装及基地组织势力驱逐出了喀布尔，逼其领导人逃入托拉波拉山区。但遗憾的是，美国及其北约盟友被初期的节节胜利冲昏了的头脑，没有一鼓作气扩大战果，将塔利班与基地组织一网打尽。而缺乏持久战的军事与心理准备，尤其是对塔利班战斗意志和再生能力的严重低估，也使美国与北约未能及时采取“牛刀杀鸡”式的重拳出击战术，以至于后来不得不与塔利班和基地组织的残余势力之间玩起了并不擅长的“猫捉老鼠”游戏，形成旷日持久的僵持局面。
从军事常识来说，军事实力堪称天下第一的美军与北约军队，收拾散兵游勇之流的塔利班武装与基地组织这些极端分子，应该是小菜一碟的事情，咋说也用不上漫长的10年光景。但战端初起之时的美国与北约，并没有意识到阿富汗战争将是一场正规军与非正规军之间的非对称作战，离不开阿富汗广大民众的同情与支持。尤其是美军与北约军队在阿富汗10年间所做的一桩桩害民之举，极大地丧失了民心，严重地损毁了自身的形象，反而强化了自身作为侵略者的角色。可以说，塔利班与基地残余势力，正是充分利用了天时、地利和人和等有利因素，发挥了自身的优势与特长，才得以与美军和北约军队周旋10年之久。
在付出了1700多名美军士兵生命的10年间，本·拉登等基地组织与塔利班骨干的相继消亡，无疑一定程度地削弱了基地与塔利班的组织力、行动力和号召力。但阿富汗境内的恐怖活动，并没有随着美国反恐战争的深入而日渐式微，甚至陷入了越反越恐的泥淖。之所以如此，根源于美国一直奉行“为反恐而反恐”的错误理念，将更多的精力用在了对塔利班与基地组织的硬打击上，在解决“极度贫穷、大范围的失业、严重的腐败和不公平”等产生恐怖主义的根本性问题上所花的精力明显不够。这种轻本重末的重建思路，好端端地将一个本该阿富汗去塔利班化的10年，演变成了一个阿富汗日益塔利班化的10年。
而今，阿富汗战争已经打了10年，62%的美国老百姓不想打了，支持这场战争的现任总统奥巴马也打算在2014年前撤军了。可问题是，届时阿富汗现政府是否有能力控制局面，阻止塔利班和基地残余势力卷土重来，恐怕现在谁心里也没有底。而阿富汗战争究竟何时画一个至少让阿富汗老百姓满意的句号，人们惟有拭目以待。（陶中华 孟庆生）
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