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2025-02-10 23:42:11

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回答1：

America’s recovery will be much slower than that from most recessions; but the government can help a bit.
“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.
与以往的经济衰退相比，这次的复苏将会缓慢许多；但政府可以略献绵力。
“美国，您要往哪走？”这是五十年前颓废派的代表，杰克凯鲁亚克的疑问；也是如今困扰全世界经济的一个悬念。这个提问也反映美国选民最大的忧虑，国会中期选举将在11月2日举行，而失业率却顽固高居近10%并且纹丝不动。他们应该做好这场艰辛漫长之旅的准备。

The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
1930年代以来最痛苦的经济衰退已在一年前结束。本来就起步乏力的复苏，在年初突然放缓。第二季度的GDP年增长率只有微弱的1.6%，过后就在这范围徘徊不前。政府的购房税务优惠政策期满后，房地产市场随之暴跌；造成私营领域的就业机会锐减，失业率似乎将可能不降反升。本夏季与日俱增的忧虑是，如果复苏持续放缓，美国经济将会再度陷入衰退。

Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession. For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
可喜的是，这些担忧如今看来似乎夸大了。源自中国的进口额短暂的提升是导致第二季度GDP疲软的原因；根据最新的统计，从八月份不错的销售额至领取失业补贴人数的减少显示，尽管经济还是疲惫不堪，但是已停止下滑。历史经验表明，虽然经济复苏初期的步伐在一两个季度中会摇摆不定，但很少会再陷入衰退。目前，美国经济的增长最可能是以大约2.5%水平步履蹒跚地前进；尽管是高于失速，但还是太缓慢，不足于改善失业率。

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