推荐回答(3个)
1、大城市的房价还有一段上涨空间。中国的城市模式完全不同于美国。我们是摞起来的城市,密度高,人口高度集中。这种趋势一旦形成,很难改变。你让中国人过"买个牙刷也要开车10分钟"的生活,是不可能的。所以,有人口增量的城市,房价很难回落。加上人民币货币供应量长期偏高,所以房价只能不断上涨。财经传媒人刘晓博就此表示:"如果以美元计价,中国楼市可能接近见顶,当然这是阶段性的顶部。但由于热钱流出带来的通缩效应,国内货币政策必然会通过宽松来对冲。因此以人民币计价的中国楼市,还有一段上涨空间,中国房价的长远走势,还要看改革的进展。"2、房产税的出台将使楼市未来发生深刻转变。房产税的出台至少将在以下三个方面逐渐发挥作用:首先是改变人们的理财观念。以往可能是买房就发财,但是从房地产税落地之日起,这一途径的发财概率就降低了。其次,将可能改变城市的资源配置。随着市民纳税人意识的觉醒,人们对于上缴的税款天然有追问透明度和去向的要求,这一要求倒逼政府部门在资源配置端重新调配资源。最后,房地产税的出现对于实体经济的影响也是巨大的。此前,由于持有土地、房产的成本极低,很多非房地产企业蜂拥进入这一市场,而且也确实获利丰厚。3、计划生育政策并不会改变楼市发展大势。全面放开二胎,这虽然确实是一个很大的利好,但还没到足以改变整个楼市发展大势的程度。好处还是一定有的。有经济学家分析说,日本和欧洲部分国家过去的教训表明,人口拐点到来前后,经济危机如影随形,首当其冲是对房地产的冲击。比如日本,在1992年出现人口拐点后,房地产泡沫破裂,地价大幅下降。而如今,中国楼市的人口拐点也已越走越近。从这个意义上说,二胎政策的放开,对楼市来说将犹如一场及时雨;即将终结的人口红利,有望因此重获生机。4、房地产企业将大量消亡、转型。曾经有无数专家在说,中国楼市正在上演大逃亡,逃亡的路线包括:逃离三四线城市、逃出郊区、逃离高债务、逃向多元化、逃往海外。现在看来,都应验了。未来10年,这种趋势将延续下去,大量中小房企将被收购,转型,或者死亡。最终,国内也许只剩下一百来家大房企,而且是多元化发展的。大量的人员,将离开这个行业另谋出路。5、未来将有部分将沦为鬼城或空城。未来三、四线城市人口总体将持续外流,而一、二线城市人口总体将继续保持流入态势。三、四线城市目前商品住房高库存及滞销问题已经较为严重,而其未来的人口又呈流出态势,随着住房供给结构性过剩问题的突出,未来将有部分新城将沦为鬼城或空城。6、逆城市化很难出现。很多国家在充分城市化之后,会出现逆城市化。也就是城里人到农村买地,建别墅。未来10到20年,中国很难出现这种局面。因为中国人多,耕地少,土地国家所有。此外,公共资源的不均衡分配,也让去农村居住的人,生活不方便、不安全。7、商铺面临价值重估。商铺面临的最大问题是,"提袋消费"(服装、鞋帽、家电等)日益被网购取代,支撑商铺价值的只剩下"体验式消费"(餐饮、电影、培训、溜冰场)。传统商业旺区的街铺,可能是最危险的资产,因为单价太高。此外是人口流失城市的郊区、新区的综合体。"一铺养三代"越来越困难,"三代养一铺"的悲剧随时发生。8、写字楼跟住宅价格将长期倒挂。在一线城市,一直存在一种现象:同样地段、同样档次的住宅和写字楼(含商务公寓),住宅更贵。为什么?原因有三:第一,商业物业基本上没有学位,不能落户口;第二,商业物业土地使用年限短;第三,管理费水电价格高,一般不能通煤气。资讯可查询房便利
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